Oldest known Iberian R1b-S116 (and DF27) is NOT at all Indoeuropean

This study is very interesting but it is very wrongly argued, maybe in an attempt to fit their findings with what has sadly become the mainstream current of "explanation" about the origins Y-DNA haplogroup R1b-S116 (also P312, etc.)

Cristina Valdiosera, Thorsten Günther et al. Four millennia of Iberian biomolecular prehistory illustrate the impact of prehistoric migrations at the far end of Eurasia. PNAS 2018. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1717762115

The issue is that they found the very first known carrier of R1b-S116 (and R1b-DF27, the main Iberian haplogroup) in an individual of the Bronze Age of Lower Rioja (Cueva de Los Lagos, Alhama de Cervera), belonging very clearly to the Central Iberian culture of Cogotas I, even if it is at its very northeast margin.

What is wrong? Well, the very title is wrong. It is nothing but an artifact produced by forced (supervised) results of Admixture within the simplistic 3-population model. Even then their result is in fact so weak that it immediately cried to me as "artifact" (noise or whatever you want to call it) and it is effectively nothing but that. 

And to demonstrate it is as simple as digging into the supplementary materials and look at the unsupervised Admixture run (dataset S03), whose optimal columns (lowest CV scores) are K=16-19 (all four are optimal, what is fine with me but makes explanation and understanding a bit more dense). 

As that unsupervised admixture is massive, with lots of global populations ancient and modern, I made a selection using only the four optimal K-values (K=16 to K=19, from left to right):

Click to expand (labels at bottom are mine)

And it is absolutely clear from K=16 to K=18 that there is not a speck of the Caucasus component which is absolutely universal in all the true Indoeuropean samples. There is a tiny speck of it in the K=19 column but there even Sardinians and some Anatolian Neolithic individuals have it at much greater values and thus cannot anymore be automatically interpreted as Indoeuropean marker, but just as extra Caucasus affinity present in some Neolithic-derived populations or individuals more than others since the very beginning of mainline (Vasconic) European Neolithic at the Aegean.

And this is it. Quod erat demonstrandum (Q.E.D): R1b-S116, at least in Iberia, has nothing to do with Indoeuropean expansion, nothing at all: it is absolutely clear that it is a pre-Indoeuropean thing. And it has been present in Lower Rioja since at least the Bronze Age.

Furthermore, when we look at the Central European Bell Beaker (Central BB) samples and compare them with their immediate chronological precursors of (definitely Indoeuropean) Corded Ware culture, we must admit that there is a decrease of the Caucasus component and an increase of the Vasconic Neolithic (light blue) element. This also speaks against the Indoeuropean "explanation" for the expansion of R1b-S116 into Central Europe, because the first known such ancient carriers are from the Bell Beaker period and not a moment earlier, and these clearly express an anti-Indoeuropean tendency in their autosomal genomes.

There is however a sizable Indoeuropean component in modern non-Basque Iberians, smaller than in most other European populations but very clear nevertheless. This must have arrived at later times: (1) with the Celts, who arrived to Catalonia at the end of the Bronze Age, later expanding into Central and Western Iberia, (2) with the Romans, (3) maybe also to some extent with the Germanic invaders of the late Roman period. None of these expansions seem particularly associated with R1b-S116, however the c. 1% R1a and the c. 8% J2 (with plausible Italo-Roman origin) should be related to it, along with an assortment of other haplogroups. 

For those willing to dig in the details, there is also a small treasure trove of other ancient Y-DNA, mostly I (which underlines the Paleoeuropean influence in Neolithic Iberia, regardless of whether this is local or was carried on from further East by the Neolithic settlers), as well as one instance of unspecific R1b, another of G and another of H.

Someone may ask, which is then the origin and means of expansion of R1b-S116, if not Indoeuropean? Good question to which I don't have yet a well defined answer. But my tentative explanation is that it should be related to two ultimately related processes within Western European "Neolithic" (Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic): 

1. The well documented phenomenon of increase, in most areas at least, of the Paleoeuropean component time passes, this may be to some extent because of simple absorption of local subneolithic "hunter-gatherers" but it probably also produced different subpopulations within the Western Neolithic and in some cases we do see these peripheral "Second Neolithic" groups expanding at the expense of the "First Neolithic" peoples. This is most clear in Central Europe with the expansion of Funnelbeaker cultures from, probably, Denmark and nearby areas of Low Germany. In fact Michelsberg culture and its close relative in France Seine-Oise-Marne basically wipe out the first farmers of LBK (Linear Pottery) at what I usually describe as the Chalcolithic but is often described as Middle or Late Neolithic in other sources.
2. Clearly Bell Beaker had something to do: we see their impact in Germany, Britain and Ireland and one could argue that Cogotas I is somehow derived from the Bell Beaker of Ciempozuelos, although in this I'm going to remain neutral and a bit skeptic until more evidence shows up. 

But what seems very apparent tome is that R1b-S116 should have expanded from somewhere in France, probably towards the South. And we do need better genetic studies, including archaeogenetic ones, on the Hexagon before we can jump to conclusions. France is not the most affected area by Bell Beaker, so I am cautious about attributing too much weight to only Bell Beaker and I would rather think on a complex succession of expansions associated to various cultures. 

Of great interest here should be the ill-known but fascinating Artenacian culture, which expanded in all West France and Belgium from a core at Dordogne before the BB period and coincident with the Corded Ware expansion in Central Europe. Like Bell Beaker folk, they were adept at bowmanship but their area is not densely affected by Bell Beaker later on (although there is indeed a scatter of findings). I do wonder if somehow Bell Beaker is derived from Artenac, even if it is clearly not the same thing. Food for thought.


Update (March 18): small steppe-like noise appears in diverse Iberian samples since the Late Neolithic/Chalcolithic.

This has arisen in the discussion below (h/t to MZ): when the supervised (forced assignment to rigid three populations) is used, the appearance of "steppe" ancestry is found here and there also before the Bronze Age. As we see above, this is not real: it does not happen in the unsupervised model at all but mere "noise" or "artifact" produced by the excessive simplicity of the three populations model.

This does not make the three populations model "wrong": it is still approximately right but "evidence" produced  ONLY from rigidly applying this model is not evidence of anything, just a hint to be confirmed or rejected via wider analysis at best.